IS, Sorry it has taken me so long to respond I just saw this. I just looked at the odds again today and Yes is back up to +106 I believe.......this is very confusing to me. I will look into it IS. Thanks for noticing that.........from Yes at +139 to go down to -225 to go back up to +106.....thats weird.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=629 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=3>France and the EU constitution
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</TD><TD vAlign=bottom width=348>By John Simpson
BBC world affairs editor
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There's not much sign here in Paris that France has just entered one of the most important weeks in its modern history. Some tattered 'yes' and 'no' placards on the walls, a few newspaper headlines at the kiosks, a couple of items on each night's main television news.
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Yet everyone I speak to in Paris seems surprisingly nervous about the outcome. And I haven't yet found anyone who thinks the result next Sunday will be a 'yes'.
That's something we can't be sure about yet. In every referendum I've reported on in France since the one which led to General de Gaulle's downfall in 1969, a lot of people seemed to make up their minds at the last minute.
This time the balance is even more delicate than usual. A referendum is a useful way of telling an unpopular government that you don't like it.
On the other hand, a reasonable majority of French people have always backed the European Union, and as the time gets shorter and the politicians get more nervous the word is going out that a 'No' vote will damage France and the European Union irrevocably.
Media support
In other words, the government and the big majority of newspapers and television stations which support it are saying, don't use this particular referendum to have a crack at President Chirac - wait till later.
The far right and the far left support a 'No' vote.
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- E IINC -->As I walked down the street on Saturday, leaflets from the National Front, the Communist Party and at least one Trotskyist faction were thrust into my hand, all asking me to vote 'No'.
The 'No' campaign also includes various members of M. Chirac's own party who - for one reason or other - have fallen out with him.
Nothing unusual in that: I don't suppose a big vote on the EU has happened in any European country without opposition from the far left, the far right, and some disgruntled centrists.
Electorate unconvinced
But this referendum is different.
Large numbers of people who would ordinarily support the EU are seriously thinking of voting 'No' on Sunday; and it isn't simply in order to teach Jacques Chirac a lesson.
This vote has touched the delicate nerve which detects when something really important for the national life is at stake.
The 'Yes' campaign hasn't yet managed to convince enough people that France's own essential interests will be protected under the new European constitution.
Most people I have spoken to here think France will be diminished by the new system. The 'No' arguments are full of references to national sovereignty and the control of foreigners.
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It has taken the French a long time to fall out of love with the European idea.
<!-- S ILIN -->French media in referendum 'bias' row
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The 'Yes' campaign hasn't been well handled. Sending a copy of the constitution to every householder may have been a worthy democratic move, but it wasn't very popular.
In the building where my flat is, the letter-boxes were jammed with 'Yes' literature. The vast text was too finely printed, making it seem like a dodgy insurance prospectus, and I thought the explanation that came with it, treated me like an idiot.
Plenty of other people in the building may have thought the same way: our communal dustbins were full of them that evening.
It has taken the French a long time to fall out of love with the European idea. Understandably, they favoured the European Economic Community when they were the dominant force inside it.
As it expanded to take in most of the rest of Western Europe, French political influence waned and the French language vanished from its corridors and committee rooms.
And now that much of Eastern Europe, too, has either joined or hopes to do so, France's position is weaker than ever.
The French voter's reported hostility to Turkish membership probably has less to do with Islam and more to do with a general annoyance that Europe scarcely looks like Europe any more.
The basic problem with the European ideal is that it has been too successful. Europe is vastly bigger, and a good deal richer than any single nation on earth; who wouldn't want to join it if they could?
But of course running a gigantic association of thirty or more countries means that no individual country, not even the big ones like Britain and France, can have much of a say.
Thirty years ago, when it was still the European Community and there were only nine members, it was heresy to suggest that there might be an upper limit to membership, beyond which all the grand ambitions to turn Europe into one vast super state would come to nothing.
But now, if France on Sunday and the Netherlands on 1 June, both vote against the new constitution, it will be very hard to resuscitate the basic idea.
In that case, Europe would have to continue as it is: an immense, hugely successful trading-bloc. In the end, it will all come down to whether people like my apartment-block neighbours are more worried about losing their identity within a vast new EU than they are about the consequences of voting 'No'. And I wouldn't like to guess which way it will go.
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</TD><TD>
BBC world affairs editor
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!-- E IBYL -->
There's not much sign here in Paris that France has just entered one of the most important weeks in its modern history. Some tattered 'yes' and 'no' placards on the walls, a few newspaper headlines at the kiosks, a couple of items on each night's main television news.
<!-- S IIMA --><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=203 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- E IIMA -->
Yet everyone I speak to in Paris seems surprisingly nervous about the outcome. And I haven't yet found anyone who thinks the result next Sunday will be a 'yes'.
That's something we can't be sure about yet. In every referendum I've reported on in France since the one which led to General de Gaulle's downfall in 1969, a lot of people seemed to make up their minds at the last minute.
This time the balance is even more delicate than usual. A referendum is a useful way of telling an unpopular government that you don't like it.
On the other hand, a reasonable majority of French people have always backed the European Union, and as the time gets shorter and the politicians get more nervous the word is going out that a 'No' vote will damage France and the European Union irrevocably.
Media support
In other words, the government and the big majority of newspapers and television stations which support it are saying, don't use this particular referendum to have a crack at President Chirac - wait till later.
The far right and the far left support a 'No' vote.
<!-- S IINC --><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=203 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=sibtbg>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- E IINC -->As I walked down the street on Saturday, leaflets from the National Front, the Communist Party and at least one Trotskyist faction were thrust into my hand, all asking me to vote 'No'.
The 'No' campaign also includes various members of M. Chirac's own party who - for one reason or other - have fallen out with him.
Nothing unusual in that: I don't suppose a big vote on the EU has happened in any European country without opposition from the far left, the far right, and some disgruntled centrists.
Electorate unconvinced
But this referendum is different.
Large numbers of people who would ordinarily support the EU are seriously thinking of voting 'No' on Sunday; and it isn't simply in order to teach Jacques Chirac a lesson.
This vote has touched the delicate nerve which detects when something really important for the national life is at stake.
The 'Yes' campaign hasn't yet managed to convince enough people that France's own essential interests will be protected under the new European constitution.
Most people I have spoken to here think France will be diminished by the new system. The 'No' arguments are full of references to national sovereignty and the control of foreigners.
<!-- S IBOX --><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=208 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width=5>
<!-- S ILIN -->French media in referendum 'bias' row
<!-- E ILIN -->
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- E IBOX -->
The 'Yes' campaign hasn't been well handled. Sending a copy of the constitution to every householder may have been a worthy democratic move, but it wasn't very popular.
In the building where my flat is, the letter-boxes were jammed with 'Yes' literature. The vast text was too finely printed, making it seem like a dodgy insurance prospectus, and I thought the explanation that came with it, treated me like an idiot.
Plenty of other people in the building may have thought the same way: our communal dustbins were full of them that evening.
It has taken the French a long time to fall out of love with the European idea. Understandably, they favoured the European Economic Community when they were the dominant force inside it.
As it expanded to take in most of the rest of Western Europe, French political influence waned and the French language vanished from its corridors and committee rooms.
And now that much of Eastern Europe, too, has either joined or hopes to do so, France's position is weaker than ever.
The French voter's reported hostility to Turkish membership probably has less to do with Islam and more to do with a general annoyance that Europe scarcely looks like Europe any more.
The basic problem with the European ideal is that it has been too successful. Europe is vastly bigger, and a good deal richer than any single nation on earth; who wouldn't want to join it if they could?
But of course running a gigantic association of thirty or more countries means that no individual country, not even the big ones like Britain and France, can have much of a say.
Thirty years ago, when it was still the European Community and there were only nine members, it was heresy to suggest that there might be an upper limit to membership, beyond which all the grand ambitions to turn Europe into one vast super state would come to nothing.
But now, if France on Sunday and the Netherlands on 1 June, both vote against the new constitution, it will be very hard to resuscitate the basic idea.
In that case, Europe would have to continue as it is: an immense, hugely successful trading-bloc. In the end, it will all come down to whether people like my apartment-block neighbours are more worried about losing their identity within a vast new EU than they are about the consequences of voting 'No'. And I wouldn't like to guess which way it will go.
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Ok...that was the 3rd time I tried to post that. It seems as if the vote is a toss-up between Yes and No at the moment. The No camp is made up of extremists (who are very popular in France unlike in other major democracies) and people just fed up with Chirac and looking at this vote as a reason to stick it to him. The "Yes" camp took a hit recently when the British populace looked like they would not pass the EU Constitution as it would take away a piece of their sovereignty. If you got the Yes early at +139 than you could hedge it if you wanted.....however, i think that yes will prevail with 51.8%.
